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Probabilistic Reasoning Videos 13 videos

TSI Math: Rolling Dice to Predict Probabilities
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Hakim rolled a standard 6-sided die 3000 times. Which of the following is the most reasonable prediction of how many times he rolled a five?

TSI Math: Predicting Probabilities with a Trick Coin
31 Views

Mercedes has a trick coin that's more likely to land on heads than on tails. She flipped the coin 1500 times, resulting in tails 450 times. What is...

TSI Math: Predicting a Sequence of Probabilities
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A standard deck of playing cards contains 4 different suits, each of which has 13 cards. Assuming the deck is shuffled, what is the probability of...

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TSI Math: Recognizing How Changes Affect Probability 17 Views


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Description:

A bowl of jellybeans has 12 cherry, 13 grape, 17 lemon, and 10 orange jellybeans. Sandra takes out and eats a lemon jellybean. What has changed for the probability of pulling out a cherry jellybean since she ate a lemon one?


Transcript

00:02

Okay sy mash buffers Next up a bowl of jellybeans

00:05

has twelve cherry thirteen great seventeen lemon and ten orange

00:08

jelly beans Sandra takes out and eat a lemon jelly

00:12

bean What has changed for the probability of pulling out

00:15

a cherry jelly bean since she ate a lemon One

00:23

So this problems right up our alley because we could

00:25

really use a goodly sized handful of jelly beans Yeah

00:28

we missed lunch again Seems like sandra i got to

00:30

the ball before us and sanders always eating and jelly

00:33

beans Yeah we're talking about you sandra We know we

00:35

know you do it well there's no sense in crying

00:37

over spilled jelly beans Let's figure this out she's taken

00:40

and eating a lemon jelly bean and now we're trying

00:42

to figure out how the probability of grabbing a cherry

00:44

has changed didn't go up to go down because of

00:47

the way the question is asked We know the cherry

00:50

probability is different because there's one less jelly bean total

00:53

This makes the cherry probability a dependent one if the

00:57

probability changes based on the outcome of another event it's

01:01

dependent upon that event so answer the question we need

01:04

to find the probability of meeting a cherry before sandra

01:06

even got her mitts on that lemon one there were

01:09

fifty two jellybeans at the beginning and twelve were cherry

01:13

giving us a before probability of twelve out of fifty

01:16

two or three out of thirteen if we reduce it

01:19

Well after sander eats the lemon one that leaves only

01:21

fifty one total jelly beans in the ball So the

01:24

denominator changes but they're still twelve cherry jelly beans so

01:28

it gives us an edge after probability of twelve over

01:31

fifty one So it looks like the numerator has stayed

01:33

the same but the denominator shrink So the odds of

01:37

you picking that cherry jelly bean went up when the

01:40

total jellybeans were reduced And while the answer here is

01:44

just be the denominator and we're the shmoop innate er 00:01:47.326 --> [endTime] in case anyone asks

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