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Probabilistic Reasoning Videos 13 videos
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TSI Math: Calculating Conditional Probability with Baye's Theorem 4 Views
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Description:
Toni ordered pizza for a party, and needs it to arrive by 7pm. There is a 30% chance the pizza will be delivered late. If the pizza is late, there is an 80% chance it will be cold. Regardless of whether the pizza shows up on time, there is also a 31% chance it will be cold. If the pizza was cold on arrival, what is the probability it was delivered late?
- Data Analysis, Statistics, and Probability / Probabilistic Reasoning
- Data Analysis, Statistics, and Probability / Probabilistic Reasoning
- TSI Math / Data Analysis, Statistics, and Probability
- Test Prep / TSI
- TSI Mathematics / Data Analysis, Statistics, and Probability
- TSI / TSI Math
- TSI / TSI Mathematics
- Test Prep / TSI
Transcript
- 00:03
Okay sy mash members we got some more probability stuff
- 00:07
for you Here we go Tony ordered pizza for a
- 00:09
party and needs it to arrive by seven pm there's
- 00:12
a thirty percent chance that pizza will be delivered late
- 00:15
If the pizza's late there's an eighty percent chance it
Full Transcript
- 00:18
will be cold regardless of whether the pizza shows up
- 00:21
on time There's also a thirty one percent chance it
- 00:24
will be cold if the pizza was cold on arrival
- 00:27
Well what is the probability It was delivered late Okay
- 00:33
well when we need to travel back in time to
- 00:35
answer a probability question our choices are the tricked out
- 00:38
delorean time machine or based there Um well since we
- 00:41
let out the delorean will go with based their amir
- 00:44
based serum comes in two versions and each one is
- 00:46
useful in different situations Take a look at the information
- 00:49
given by the question and put it in symbolic form
- 00:52
to figure out which version of bays to use Well
- 00:55
we want to know the probability that that pizza dude
- 00:57
was late given that the pizza was cold If we
- 01:00
set event b to be late delivery and a to
- 01:03
be cold pizza we're looking to find probability of be
- 01:07
given a probability that the pizza's cold given that it
- 01:10
was delivered late His point eight That means well this
- 01:12
p a given b thing is point eight Right That's
- 01:15
probability The probability of a late delivery is point three
- 01:18
or ah this thing the probability that pizza arrives cold
- 01:21
is point three one or ah this equation right there
- 01:24
Well the three things we do know and the one
- 01:25
thing we want to know match the simpler form Of
- 01:28
based serum which is this thing and we just plug
- 01:31
it all in and see if it works So we've
- 01:33
got point eight times point three over point three one
- 01:35
that's point two four point three one what does that
- 01:37
give us About a seventy seven and a half percent
- 01:40
chance that the pizza dude was late If the pizza
- 01:43
arrived cold gross and all congealed congealed What happened Your
- 01:48
pineapple pizza We need more pineapple on it Come on 00:01:50.688 --> [endTime] guys
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