Most Doomsday experts have predicted 13 of the last three recessions. Loud prognostications about sharp downturns and market implosions are just part of the investing world.
Eventually, they'll be right. The sun will swallow the earth. But market corrections are much more statistically possible. A correction is defined by a 10% decline from a recent high on an exchange, commodity, individual equity, or other asset. Minor corrections range between 5% and 10%, while bear markets represent declines of 20% or more.
Given that value is defined by the market, it's possible that investors may push the price of an asset higher, beyond fair or even rational value. If bad news comes or one seller triggers an exodus from the position or market, then corrections of 5%, 10% or more are possible.
From 1985 to 2018, the S&P 500 experienced 25 "corrections," according to Yardeni Research, which sets the figure at a 5% decline or more. That research suggests that such a correction occurs around every 16 months.
So, use that to your advantage. When the correction comes, buy on the dip.
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Finance: What is Recession?15 Views
finance a la shmoop what is recession well here's one here's another and
another and well here's an economic recession so technically when GDP [Set of teeth appear]
declines for two sequential quarters that is a recession and you can glean
enough from this most excellent chart that in most years GDP grows not
massively but relatively steadily and with compounding the US has grown GDP
from a trickle to a torrent in a recession economic activity declines [Recession definition appears]
maybe a half a percent a percent maybe two percent and you might not think
that's a big deal but we're a nation living on credit that is plastic these [Man using credit card]
things mortgages car loans bunch of other credit II kind of things so a
decline of even 1% when we were expecting growth of two is a delta of 3%
and that change is exacerbated with leverage when people fear for their job
safety they stop buying those extra pairs of earrings at the mall they get [Woman biting her nails]
one less tattoo and they stop making appointments at Botox Depot so all of
the sudden activity in given quote luxury sectors or otherwise unquote just [Person receiving a tattoo]
stops dead and there's a multiplier effect here as well because a wealthy
banker who used to throw 20 parties a year now only throws four so all those [Calendar displaying party days appears]
bartenders and oboe players and ice sculptors yeah they're all out of work
as well and then they buy less beer and that new ice pick the sculptor was gonna
buy yeah well she'll just sharpen her own and make do with it you know until
the GDP grows again after the recession is over in a few years so yeah [Boom/bust cycle appears]
recessions they're dangerous and credit high credit makes them all the more
dangerous so be wary